As The Year Winds down...

With a month to go on the calendar, we’re not likely to see a dramatic turnaround in the sales trend which have defined the year. There’s small hints the worst might be behind us here. Nevertheless, the national economy, and employment outlook will temper if and when a recovery fully takes hold as 2009 unfolds.

No matter what the economic outlook, there’s some things to keep in mind: economic surge or retreat, people and families always need a place to live. For those with solid credit histories, buying a home never goes out of style. The cyclical retreat in prices—a market correction it could be argued— will help draw qualified buyers back into the market. And for those looking for a good place to park their money, the allure of sensibly-priced real estate as a tangible investment could become even more attractive, given the new sense of uncertainty about the stock market.

November figures for home sales in DeKalb County from RealTracs show only a modest decline of 15 percent when compared with last year. Eleven homes closed last month; 13 during November 2007. If you can believe the averages, what’s selling is priced lower: the average sale in November this year netted $126,863, compared with $192,138 a year ago.

When looking at “averages,” always important to keep in mind how easily that figure can be skewed by a few sales at either extreme of the market.

Year to date figures through November underscore how much a year this wasn’t. Total sales are off 33 percent, with 156 closings for the first 11 months of the year, compared with 241 last year. Nevertheless, the average selling price jumped 11 percent to $157,129 this year, compared, with $141,253 in 2007. Again, though, be wary of those averages.

The November land sales report from Realtracs is not yet available.

October holds to prevailing model

RealTrac’s October numbers are in and it’s more of the same: residential sales way off while land sales continue to hold their own.

First the good, or better, news. Year-to-date land sales are actually up, with 102 parcels sold through October, compared with 98 through the first 10 months of last year. October, though, saw a small dip, 7 sales now, 8 a year ago. Consider the market in terms of dollars only, and it’s a much different story. Average selling price in October just $34,214, compared with $91,100 October 2007. through the first 10 months of the year, the average selling price for land was $51,115, compared with $78,028 a year ago.

Do the math: using these year-to-date averages, there was $7,646774 in land sales in 2007, $5,213,730 in sales through October 2008. That’s a $2,433,044 decline in dollar volume. Use 6 percent as an average commission rate for reference purposes, and there’s been a decline of $146K in earning power for area real estate agents from land sales alone.

Now for home sales, way off from 2007. Year-to-date sales have declined 36 percent here—228 sales through October last year, against 145 now— although the average selling price has increased $21K, $159,425 compared with $138,352 through October 2007.
Even with those average sales increases the decline in total unit sales has had a telling effect on earning power.
Total dollar volume through October 2007: $31,544, 256.
2008: $23,116,625.

That translates into a dollar decline of $8,427,631. Under the six percent commission model, there’s a loss of $505,658 in potential income for area real estate professionals.... not to mention the decline in all business and professional services activity generated by each closing.

October home sales merely reflected the yearly trends: only 14 units sold, compared with 27 a year ago., a 40 percent decline, slightly offset by a 10 percent average increase in selling price to $159,239.

One cautionary note: numbers here only reflect sales of DeKalb County property listed with our multiple listing service(MLS). In today’s trying economic times, some people are trying to sell their property themselves. So while MLS activity may be the best picture we can draw on the state of the market, it’s not the whole picture.

The Seasons turn, market slows

What’s to say? There’s light at the end of the tunnel...we’re just not there yet, and the tunnel may course its way a little longer than anticipated...or liked.

Once again in September home sales sales were off, keeping with year-long trends. For the month 13 homes listed in the MLS sold, down 41 percent compared with a year ago. Average sales price, was up significantly, $220,035 compared with $120,777. That uptick demonstrates how one or two high priced sales can skew averages, for better or worse.

One unwelcome development is the rise in the monthly number of homes for sale; 247 MLS listings last month, compared with 234 a year ago. More homes, less sales—It’s just one indicator how the national housing crises can impact a local market. Seller beware.

Year to date sales look slightly better, down roughly a third compared with last year. Through September 2008, 131 homes listed on the MLS have closed; through the first nine months of 2007 201 had sold.

The land market looks better, though activity there has slowed too. September sales were off by a third, with six parcels sold this year against 9 last year. Despite the drop, year-to-date sales have registered a modest gain of five percent, with 95 parcels sold.

Again, note the number of listings: in September the daily average was 626 active land listings son our MLS. A year ago the average was 534. None of these numbers—for homes or land— take into account what’s for sale by owners, and the level of activity there.

Everything runs in cycles. Sooner or later things will start to swing back in the other direction. Until then, hold on.

National Trends, On The Local Scale

A quick glance at the chart below says all you need to know: home sales are off, and that’s been the trend since early in the year. What’s playing out locally only reflects what’s taking place merely reflects the national scene, and national trends may be doing most to shape the local market as well. National media still talking up the weak housing market, Wall St. in a spin, banks tight with credit.

What’s selling mostly are properties immune from such trends; they’ve the appeal to sell in any market. Average selling price in August was way up, days on market was down compared with a year ago. That said, keep in mind when sales are so slow a couple of sales can skew the trends, easily upping or lowering averages.

Anyway, for August: RealTracs reports 12 homes listed in our MLS sold in the country at an average selling price of $210, 664. Actual unit sales were off 48 percent, compared with August 2007, while average closing price climbed nearly 27 percent. In August 2007 there were 23 closings, and an average sales price of $154,626.

Sluggish sales continue to define the year overall. To date, home sales in DeKalb County have been off 35 percent compared with the first eight months of 2007. There were 179 homes sold by this time last year, 118 by the end of August 2008. The number of listings has increased, as well: 225 average per day this year, compared with 200 throughout August of 2007.

As far as land goes, August saw land sales succumb to the same influences shaping residential market most of the year. August sales were off 43 percent, with eight sales last month,compared with 14 a year ago. There’s a lot of inventory: 627 active listings of land, lots and farms each day last month, compared with the 507 daily average August 2007. Year-to-date land sales continue to hold their own, however. Total sales for 2008 are running ahead of last year, with 89 sales this year, compared with 81 through August last year.

The market has slowed but it hasn’t stopped. There’s always buyers for the right property, properly priced and promoted.

A Quick Look at Home Sales

As an experiment, I created this chart to see how it would help. CLick on it so you can see what it says

The lines, as indicated, show trends in home sales in DeKalb County for the last three years, by the month.

More in the follow-up post

Summer heat

DeKalb County was slower to feel the softening of the housing market which hit other parts of the country last year, but there’s no doubt it’s been a slow summer. Local Realtors are working harder to realize fewer sales, while more homes are available. Land sales remain up for the year, but there’s so much inventory available that roughly one percent of listed parcels sold last month. Year-to-date closings on homes listed in RealTracs, our local Multiple Listing Service(MLS) are off 32 percent.

Buyers take note: you’ve got a lot of choices, but it’s going to take a good down payment and impeccable credit history to realize the full potential of your bargaining power— with the help of a Realtor at Center Hill Realty to sort things out.

Figures for July just released by RealTracs registered a 58 percent decline in home sales for the month. Last month, there were closings on 11 homes, compared with 26 in July 2007. You have to go all the way back to 2001 to see a slower July. Back then, just seven residential listings here changed hands of the daily average of only 142 listings. July 2008 the daly average was 234 listings.

The average price per closing was also down, $106, 263, compared with $127,428 a year ago. One bright spot: those homes which sold were on the market only 87 days, half the average for homes selling during July a year ago.

Land looks better, in terms of sales. Overall sales are up 20 percent year to date, helped by gains seen earlier. July was an off month, with seven parcels sold, compared with an even dozen July 2007. Average closing price was nearly identical at $51K-plus, although prices this year represented 84 percent of the asking price, compared with 92 percent a year ago. Nice lots, properly priced in a good location are what’s moving: the average days on market for land selling this July was just 26 days, compared with 158 days last year.

What does all this mean? However you slice it it, it’s been a tough month. But homes and land are still selling. Properly priced, professionally promoted and presented on the Internet homes and buyers can find each other. Sellers, you need to make a realistic assessment of where your home or property fits in the current market and price it appropriately. Buyers will always benefit from timely market insight.

Talk to us, we’re Realtors.

More of the same...

Helped by activity earlier this year, sales of land, lots and farms in Dekalb County were still up through June, compared with a year ago. Year-to-date sales grew 32 percent, with 74 land parcels sold, 19 more than the 55 which changed hands during the first half of 2007. Prices are down, however: the average sale tallied $50,871 now, compared with $72,096 a year ago.

Sales for the month, however, were off more than a third compared with June 2007, subject to the same downward trend which has pinched the home market here. Seven parcels were sold last month, 11 during June 2007. Average sales price was also down: $50.414 against $66,872 June 2007. There’s a lot more available as well:RealTracs reports an average of 584 active land listings January through June. For the same period a year ago, the average was 447. Last month, the daily average for active land listings was 617.

Home sales have not yet begun to emerge from the recent downturn, although higher priced lake view properties and vacation homes may bot be as prone to the softness of the current market. Overall home sales through June are off 27 percent, although the average sales price for the year is up. The MLS report shows 95 listings have sold this year, compared with 130 closings during the first six months of 2007. Average sales price this year tallied $150,842, compared with $138,949 last year.

June’s sharp decline contributed to the overall decline for the year so far. The month saw a 48 percent dip in sales, to 12 last month from 23 closings recorded June 2007. June’s average home sale price was also off significantly, down more than $35,000 from the $171,277 average selling price a year earlier to $134,625.

It’s been a tough year so far—there’s no other way to put it— and it may continue a while longer. Sooner or later the market will start it’s turnaround. Until then, if you’ve got good credit and a solid down payment, you should have little trouble finding a seller who’s eager to negotiate.

Home Sales Slow in May

May home sales were off 24 percent when compared with a year ago. When seen as the culmination of recent sales trends, it seems the national slowdown in residential sales has some presence here.

According to RealTracs figures for the month, there were 19 homes which closed in May, compared with 25 a year ago. But— and it’s a cautionary note— the average price per home climbed more than $50,000, to $214,846 versus the $158,200 average seen a a year ago. That suggests a disproportionate number of more expensive listings were sold during the month, also reflecting the continued strength and appeal of luxury, lake and lakeview homes.

May's decline also figures in year-to-date sales. Overall, home sales for the first five months of the year were off 25 percent when measured against the same sales period of 2007. One hundred and seven homes were sold through May then, compared with 83 this year. The average price is slightly higher, though, again attesting to higher priced sales. The typical home sold brought $153, 187 through May 2008, $132,000 for the same period of 2007.

It’s a different story for land, both for the month and the year thus far. In May 10 parcels were sold, averaging $90,720. May 2007 nine parcels sold, at $61,666. Sales both months represented just a a minute share of total parcels available: A year ago, the monthly average was 464 parcels for sale each day; May 2008 the average land inventory climbed to 612 parcels.

A flurry of land sales in the early months of the year have helped the cumulative total easily surpass land sales through May 2007. To date, 67 parcels sold, at an average of $50,919. Last year by this time only 44 parcels had sold but the average selling price was $73,404.

We are starting to see some reports the national real estate market is showing some sign of renewed vigor in other areas, including some hardest hit by the recent downturn. It could be our market is running slightly behind the national trends and it may be a little longer for the uptick to be seen here. June’s figures should provide some insight.

April Holds Its Own On Home Sales

Home sales in DeKalb County matched those of a year ago for April, breaking with recent trends, but the monthly sales could not offset the declines seen in the first quarter of the year.

According to RealTracs, the area Multiple Listing Service, the 19 homes sold in April matched up exactly with those sold a year ago, in numbers. But the selling price of those homes was off $45,000 compared with 2007, $120,952 this April against the average selling price of $165,547 in April 2007. Throughout the month, an average of 225 homes were up for sale each day, compared with 195 throughout April 2007. There’s more inventory, but a smaller share were sold.

Year to date homes sales here show a 22 percent decline through April. To date, a total of 64 homes were sold within the county, compared with 82 through April 2007. Average selling price, however has held its own through the first four months, $134,882 versus $135,519 a year ago.

Land sales for the first third of the year look better, despite a near stagnant April. Year to date 63 parcels have been sold, at an average selling price of $69,217, 16 more than sold the first four months of 2007. At the end of April a year ago 47 parcels had changed hand, at an average price of $79,217. Despite the action, there’s still much inventory for the market to absorb, On average, 569 parcels were up for sale through April, compared with 436 a year ago.

Look at sales for April alone and it seems reasonable to assume the situation can only improve. Just two parcels sold in April 2008, compared with six the same month a year earlier. Average selling price: $26,666 then and $33,500 now. But April sales didn’t even begin to eat into the monthly average of 608 land, lot or farm listings.

With May, we enter a proving ground. By month’s end we should have a much better idea if the year’s slow start will be followed by a resurgent market, or if trends which have softened the real estate market in other ares are also at play here.

The Tides of March

Are we poised to come out of a temporary lull or have national trends started to reach here into DeKalb County? Those questions linger as we come out of a March that was lackluster, at best. But whatever the numbers say, people continue to buy and sell real estate. When you’re ready, it’s always the right time.

RealTracs figures for March shows residential sales held even with February, with 14 homes sold here each of the last two months. Average selling price was down, considerably, though: $124,235 for March, against $179,985 in February.

Compare March sales with those for the same month last year and you start to scratch your head: Is our spring home selling season just getting off to a slow start?

In 2007, 31 homes were sold in March, more than double the 14 sold here last month. Last month’s average prices were also down a little more ethan $10K. It’s worth noting it took less time to sell those homes—an average of 86 days on the market— compared with 94 for March 2007. But, but there’s more inventory out there: an average of 220 active listings in March 2008, compared with 190 a year ago.

Things look much better for land, lot and farm sales, despite the abundance of available property. During March, 552 parcels were for sale in DeKalb County, 26 percent more than the 438 active listings at the same time last year. Land sales actually registered a 23 percent gain, with 16 parcels sold this year, compared with 13 during March 2007.
But, the sales price was down this year by more than half. The average land parcel changed hands for $43,443 last month, $96,807 the same month a year ago.

What does all this mean? We’ll have to look ahead to see. Clearly, there’s always buyers and sellers, whatever the trends.

February Continues Positive Trends

The real estate market in DeKalb County continues to run against the national tide. Elsewhere, there’s been a sharp downturn in home sales. Here, we’re holding our own, while sales of land are showing some welcome gains.

Realtracs, our local Multiple Listing Service,releases its sales reports on the 5th of each month for the previous month. Here’s a quick look at what February’s numbers say about the current state of our market as we approach the Spring season.

There were as many homes sold here—14— in Feb. 2008 as a year earlier, but prices have climbed nicely. The average selling price last month was $179,985, compared with $97,228 a year ago. More good news: homes that sold moved a lot quicker, bringing faster returns to sellers. This year, homes that went to closing were on the market for 81 days, compared with an average of 93 days. And, buyers averaged 94.8 percent of their asking price.

It’s important to note, though, there was an average of 220 homes on the market in Feb., 31 more than the 189 up for sale Feb. 2007. Competition is tight, and how a home is prepared for market and promoted to qualified buyers. If you’re ready to sell and want the inside track, contact us at Center Hill Realty.

Now to land lots and farms. There’s been more action so far this year, but at more modest prices. A year ago only seven parcels were sold in February, at an average price of $48, 571. It took an average of 159 days to take that land from listing to closing.

Jump forward to Feb 2008 and things look much better. Sales nearly quadrupled, with 27 closings, at an average price of $41,722. But there’s still plenty of land to be absorbed: Realtracs reports an average of 555 listings per day during February, a 25 percent increase over the 440 available at year ago.

If you’ve got the right parcel, in the right location there’s always buyers, and they search our website.

What The Numbers Say...

Is it a good time to buy property? The fact is, real estate is always a good investment.

Whether today’s market favors the buyer or seller can be as much a product of national trends as local preferences. And since all real estate is local, the more you know about what’s happening in your market, the better the deal, no matter what side of the transaction you’re on.

This blog will track the Center Hill Lake/DeKalb County region of Middle Tennessee to keep buyers and sellers current about factors which should impact their respective decisions. Center Hill Realty enjoys a well earned reputation as “The Lake Specialist” but our presence and expertise reaches into all parts of DeKalb County and the surrounding region. Turn here in months ahead for reports on what the latest sales statistics reveal about our real estate market, insight into what’s driving those trends, and advice on what you can do, as a buyer or seller, to turn that knowledge to your advantage.

Let’s begin with some numbers. Everyone knows the real estate market has been in the doldrums, right? Read the national papers, watch the evening news and you know sales are off dramatically, lenders have tightened their belts,things just don’t look so good....

Not here. Since our market is not as prone to the dramatic swings, the blind speculation and dramatic ups and downs which have come home to roost in other areas, we’ve escaped much of that bad news. Sales of homes, and the prices they brought, were actually up last year.

Year-end sales figures from RealTracs, our multiple listing service, registered a 4.6 percent gain in 2007 over 2006. There were closings on 254 houses in DeKalb County last year, compared with 227 in 2006. The average price showed a modest two percent gain, $140K versus $138K as sellers realized 96 percent of their asking price.(All sales figures here will be rounded to nearest thousand)

Sellers, at this point we don’t expect anything to change so it’s still a good time to put your home on the market. Buyers, there’s plenty of fair deals to be found.

Call us.

Where our market did suffer last year was in undeveloped land and lot sales. There, we saw a 35 percent decline, as 111 land parcels changed hands in 2007, compared with 172 in 2007. The silver lining: the prices were up almost as much, 22 percent, with the average land sale nearly $84K in 2007, compared with $68K in 2006.

It remains to be seen whether the inventory of unsold parcels translates into a buyer’s market this year.
To know, turn to the Center Hill Realty Report in weeks and months ahead for the insight and advice which will help make you a smarter buyer or seller.